What’s your retirement number?
Two timelines, one number. How far away retirement is decides how much prices rise. How long retirement lasts decides how much you need to keep it funded.
Your numbers
Sample numbers. Replace them with yours.
$2,709,167
That’s $1,500,000 in today’s dollars.
$5,000 × 1.81 × 300 = $2,709,167
- Now → Retirement (20 yrs): prices grow ×1.81
- Living in retirement (30 yrs): 4% rule → ×300
- Prices by then×1.811.03 to the power of 20 years
- Your monthly spending then$9,031$5,000 × 1.81
- Safe withdrawal rate4%for a 30-year retirement, so ×300 your monthly spending
- Retirement number$2,709,167$9,031 × 300
Why two timelines?
- Years until retirement = how much prices rise (inflation).
- Years in retirement = how long your money has to last. Longer retirement → lower safe withdrawal rate → bigger number.
- The 4% rule comes from the Trinity Study: take out 4% your first year, adjust for inflation after, and a stock/bond portfolio historically lasted about 30 years.
Withdrawal rate by years in retirement
The fine print
Educational only, not financial advice. Withdrawal rates are rules of thumb based on historical research. Your real number depends on your investments, taxes, Social Security and other income, and what markets do.
How the math works: prices multiplier = (1 + inflation) to the power of years until retirement. Your monthly spending then = today’s spending × that multiplier. The monthly multiplier is 12 ÷ the withdrawal rate (4% → ×300, 3.5% → ×343). Retirement number = monthly spending then × monthly multiplier. Multipliers on the page are rounded; the total uses the exact figures.